SHOPPING CENTER INSIGHTS BY JEFF DERVECHBlog

“What do we do with all of this excess parking at our Walmart stores? Let’s create town centers!” – Walmart Executive Walmart has announced plans to capitalize on their existing real estate to reutilize excess parking fields for new town center retail developments. This is a new campaign spearheaded by Walmart called “Walmart Reimagined” which was unrevealed in October 2018 at the ICSC Southeast Conference in Atlanta. This is a great way for Walmart to...

Kroger enters into grocery partnership with Walgreens! This partnership is a format for Kroger to offer a defined branded section within the Walgreens store footprint to sell groceries. The average Kroger grocery section in the new Walgreens program is going to be approx. 4,000 sf which is roughly about a 30% of the average Walgreens selling space. This move positions both companies to reach new customers and reshape their businesses in order to account for...

Success in the future of retail requires the embracing and implementation of omni-channel into marketing and business operations. The retailers that perform this well will receive a “double whammy” as they capitalize from online in addition to brick and mortar. In the review of the recently passed 2018 Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping stretch (Black Friday through Cyber Monday), 88% of US adults bought merchandise from physical retailers, whether through their online websites or directly in...

Retail Development is expected to increase for 2019 when compared to 2018 with more than $90M square feet of new retail projected of which includes redevelopments, new restaurants, grocery anchored shopping centers and urban styled experience projects. FY 2018 is on pace to end up slightly less than $70M sf of new retail. The focus for developers will continue to be on mixed use projects that are e-commerce resistant and that continue to add an...

TJX is a strong tenant for a shopping center landlord for many reasons and throughout all seasons! Everyone wants a bargain! As consumers look to stretch their dollar, this retailer continues to provide options that are aspirational and economical which bodes well in this sector of the market. They consistently drive traffic to their stores by keeping customers engaged and by regularly changing their instore assortments. This prompts regular visits by shoppers which in turn...

Ikea is looking to open 6 new stores within mixed use retail projects that they plan to self-develop over the next 2 years. The company calls these stores “Meeting Places” and will look to high profile cities in core urban markets for this concept which will include an Ikea store, a home goods big box and a mall featuring entertainment uses and other international retail brands. The standard footprint for these new locations with range...

This holiday shopping season sales could exceed $1 trillion of which 87.5% will be done in brick and mortar business. It is all about creating a great environment and great services for your consumer to make shopping as seamless and as frictionless as possible. Mall landlords are implementing curbside delivery in which consumers come to the mall, make their purchases, continue shopping and items are individually picked up, aggregated together and delivered to their car...

Retailers must prepare for a floodgate of consumers to shop over this 5-day Thanksgiving weekend. National Retail Federation estimates 164 million consumers are already planning to go shopping. Consumers will be shopping all weekend and retailers must be ready to meet demand. Many consumers will head out right after finishing holiday turkey and continue to shop through Cyber Monday. Data points from the survey include: 21% (34 million) expected to shop on Thanksgiving Day, 71%...

Growth within the grocer sector is strong in many areas encompassing Southwest Florida! Individuals grocers to include Earth Fare, Whole Foods, Lucky’s Market, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Detwiler’s Farm Market are continuing to seek opportunities to growth their footprint within this sector of the state. In search of entering into these markets with limited options, they are lending themselves to being flexible in deal structures, wether that is leasing all or a portion of a...

Majority of holiday weekend shoppers are expected to head to physical retailers and shopping center destinations with ambitions to spend more than they did in 2017. 83% of Thanksgiving weekend shoppers plan to buy in brick and mortar and spend approx. $555 worth of goods and services over the 4-day weekend. The retailers that have both a physical and online presence will be ones to drive the highest sales as consumers want options and will...

Food Halls continue to be a hot ticket for retail properties! The concept has grown significantly since 2015 from approximately 70 projects being tracked in the US, to over 180 food halls by the end of 2018 according to Cushman & Wakefield. The buck doesn’t stop there, the industry is expecting that to grow to 300 individual food halls by the end of 2020. Food Halls comes in all different shapes and sizes ranging from...

Dollar General is rolling out a strategy to reduce its store footprint from 9,000 sf to approx. 4,500 sf in an initiative to incorporate a new urban concept called DGX. Dollar General operates approx. 15,000 corporate owned and operate units across its portfolio, opening approx. 1,315 stores in Fiscal Year 2017. The new concept is to target millennials starting families and setting up in homes while trying to save money. The concept is expected to...

Brick and Mortar drives digital engagement! Brand’s web traffic and online sales performance is directly correlated and heavily influenced by the presence of a physical store. The selling experience is directly linked to touchpoints through selling channels such as stores, direct to customer, mobile and online. This link ultimately in effect leads to the promotion of a brand, building better customer relationships, which leads to an increase in shopping trips resulting in higher sales. Digital...

Significantly lower the rent or face losing the location. This is the ultimatum Mattress Firm is issuing landlords as it begins the bankruptcy process filed on October 5th, 2018. Mattress Firm operates more than 3,000 stores and plans to reduce its store count by more than 500 units. The mattress retailer has experienced aggressive expansion in the recent years including several mergers which has resulted in the filing of bankruptcy mainly due to an accounting...

Holiday shoppers are increasingly valuing experience over things! Interesting statistics from Deloitte’s 33rd annual Holiday Survey. According to the survey, experience spending will account for 40% or $611, out of the total $1,536 expected holiday shopper budget. 57% of total holiday spending is expected to be online this year. 66% of shoppers plan to research online and purchase in-store with 45% buying on-line and picking up in store. Omnichannel will be in full force this...

Tractor Supply is continuing its plan of growth with an announcement to add 500 more stores to its existing footprint of 1,900 units. This retailer has been around for over 80 years and caters to a very niche customer. The average store generates approx. $257 per square foot when compared to Macy’s at $195 per square foot. No doubt this is a strong company with profits growing by approx. 9% per year on average since...

Retail landlords continue to take advantage of the store closures within their property portfolio. They are eager for a new beginning and are re-tenanting their spaces with new concepts that pay more rent and add to the retail synergy at their properties. Concepts such as cinemas, trampoline parks, fitness facilities, dining halls, sporting goods retailers and discount home furnishing stores among many other options are what these landlords are pursuing to replace this recaptured retail...

Did you know that Planet Fitness was the #1 ranked tenant by total new square footage leased since the start of 2017 across all “mall” tenants? Fitness is an expanding sector and one of which is near internet resistant. With more than 36,000 clubs across the US with 60M+ members, consumers are more health conscious as ever in today’s day in age. Many shopping center landlords are seeking fitness uses as ideally anchor tenants to...

US consumer confidence is at an 18 year high with an index of 138.4 in September up from 134.7 in August. The all-time high is 144.7 which was reach in 2000. This bodes well for the economy as consumer spending fuels most developed service-based economies, including the US representing approx. 70% of GDP. Coupled by a strong economy and robust job growth, a high consumer confidence level of 138.4 in September proves a healthy economy...

Do you know what the future of malls looks like? This is an ever-changing and evolving question but one that is posed quite regularly. As traditionally formatted malls are re-purposed or re-positioned, developers are having a fun time creating a new picture with a blank canvas. “New is the new, new”! This was a phase quoted by Spencer Levy, America’s head of research for CBRE. University Mall in Tampa near the University of South Florida...

More and more of Americans are continuing to eat at home, making the “dine-out” dollar more competitive amongst restaurants brand. 82% of Americans meals are prepared at home. Traffic for the industry was down 1.1% in July, the 29th straight month of declines, according to MillerPulse data. Restaurant Operators continue to report rising sales, however this increase has been caused by price hikes and not necessarily more customers. Pre-made meals, online grocery delivery, crushing student...

Interesting Opinions via Twitter from different economist pertaining to the August jobs report. Overall, it is a very healthy report marking the 95th straight month of employment gains with an unemployment rate at 3.9%. Jobs create discretionary income which in turns fuels retail sales keeping the shopping center industry in a healthy state. [Source]

In the off-price and specialty retail space, TJX and Ross lead the pack with the highest return on their investment compared to how much they pay in rent. This report analyzed companies return on investment as it relates to what they earn in sales per square foot, compared to what they pay in rent per square foot. TJX and Ross both bring in more than 20x greater then what they pay in rent. This is...

Retail Sales spiked over the summer primarily due to a strong economy with GDP at 4.1% annualized growth in Q2 and successful retailers are effectively implementing Omni-Channel retail into their arsenal. This is required for the future success for any retail brand and the strongest retailers are spanning across physical, mobile and social platforms to implement this strategy. This is what customers want and desire and allows retail brands the opportunity to parlay their physical...

Planet Fitness is anticipating future growth and looks to Sears and Kmart vacancies as ideal opportunities. The retailer plans to backfill a lot of these recent retail vacancies and looks to landlords as a use that can drive traffic and that “can’t be Amazoned”. Planet Fitness continues to grow its membership base now at 12.1 million, up from 10.4 million a year ago with a total of 1,608 stores mostly in North America. Between 2013...

Toys ‘R’ Us is beginning the process of selling off its real estate, most of which are freestanding stores or located in open air shopping centers averaging approx., 40,000 sf. According to bankruptcy filings players in the mix include Big Lots, Hobby Lobby, Ashley Furniture, Burlington Stores, TJMaxx, Aldi, Marshalls, HomeGoods, PGA Superstore, Target and more. This auction process requires bidders to close very quickly with no financing/lender contingences which leads to only players that...

Despite some of the negative headlines, quality malls and well positioned brick and mortar retail is expected for robust growth in the coming decade. Over this period, annual consumer spending is estimated at 4.3% which will be fueled primarily by low unemployment and an expanding economy. As anchored department store tenants are redeveloped due to the change in meeting consumer demands, inline tenants will continue to fare much better as they are able to pivot...

Let the countdown begin! The arrival of new lease accounting regulations is on the horizon, less than 6 months out – January 2019. The new changes will require lease liabilities to be brought onto the balance sheet, requiring retail operators to recognize and report almost all lease obligations which has not necessarily been the case in the past. The purpose of this change by FASB is to improve transparency, comparability and financial reporting. This implementation...

CVS moves to add option for Doc On-line styled service. This is the way of the future for the drug-store chain as they look to transform their business model to incorporate expanded physician service offerings. It comes at a time where CVS is getting closer to acquiring Aetna and also as Amazon looks to enter the pharmacy space with its acquisition of online pharmacy Pill Pack. CVS will be using it retail presence as infrastructure...

Automation in Restaurants is continuing to increase! A study revealed that 54% of tasks preformed in restaurants can be automated. The declining costs of automated machines in conjunction with the rising cost of the labor market are increasing the appeal for fast food chains. Employees will always be needed at restaurants, but the question is to what degree? Some tasks can be completed by a “machine” but there are many components to a restaurant that...

As the hurricane season approaches us, the message is clearly and simply “be prepared”. Last year’s hurricane season caused a record $202 billion in damages in the US and approx. $370 billion worth worldwide. Property Owners must realize that there is a 30-day waiting period from the date a flood policy is purchased before the policy takes effect. Also for consideration, commercial property insurance usually does not include flood or business interpretation coverage “loss of...

Retail Investors continue to search for value-add opportunities composed with a tenant mix of e-commerce resistant and experiential tenants including such uses as medical, fitness, restaurants, grocery, entertainment and convenience. The Net Lease Market remains very strong despite headlines, although the average cap rate is up 10 basis points; many factors go into that (lease term, location of property, tenant credit, size of asset, etc.). Investor’s remains confident and the recent increase should not be...

Starbucks announces plans to slim and trim approx. 150 underperforming stores in 2019 particularly in urban markets in order to optimize their existing store base! This is a case of opening up stores too close together also known as “cannibalization”. Starbucks is still the 800-pound gorilla but is facing growing competition from trendy, independent neighborhood coffee shops. Starbucks will continue to expand, primarily by shifting their focus from urban to suburban in order to capitalize...