It’s always nice to hear good news. Coming out of the pandemic and through 2022 was a bumpy ride, now NRF economists are saying that a recession is unlikely in 2023. The federal reserve announced that with the inflation hikes, they are seeing desirable results and only hiked rates .25 basis points in February compared to .50 in previous months. The economy is seen as very resilient at this time, and we are starting to see a mild slow down with inflation easing. “The good news is that corporate and household balance sheets are in the best shape we’ve seen going into a downturn,” said Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist for the National Retail Federation. “This should make any economic slowdown mild and limit the downside risks despite my outlook for the economy to straddle a zero-growth path during 2023.” 

The unemployment rate is at a 50 year low at 3.5%. Although some major companies, especially in the technology sector have announced layoffs, other smaller businesses are hiring. The entire state of the economy remains in a fairly slow growth mode, but it seems as though the Fed is keeping a good balance between rate hikes to trying to tame inflation. We look forward to a positive and prosperous 2023. 

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U.S. recession unlikely in 2023, says NRF economist | Chain Store Age